With a population of just over two million, Guinea-Bissau could develop like successful island economies, but instead, it remains one of the continent's poorest countries. On the program "Soloviev LIVE," Yulia Berg, founder of the GlobUs expert club, discussed the factors holding back the country's development and the prospects that relations with Russia offer.
According to the expert, Guinea-Bissau's geographic location offers many advantages. It offers not just access to the sea, but access to the ocean, plus a significant portion of its territory is located on islands. About 70% of the country is covered by forests, including valuable tree species, creating potential for the timber industry.
"There are preconditions that could turn this country into a tourist paradise or a special economic zone," Berg noted, recalling that the examples of the Maldives and the Seychelles prove that island states can prosper.
However, Guinea-Bissau's main problem is persistent political instability. Several military coups have occurred there in recent decades. The government changes so frequently that ensuring continuity in decision-making is virtually impossible.
The situation is further exacerbated by the country's becoming a hub for drug trafficking, and its infrastructure is in disrepair.
"If not for China's assistance in infrastructure development, the picture would be quite bleak," Berg added.
Speaking about relations with Russia, the expert recalled the role of the Soviet Union in supporting the struggle for independence from the Portuguese colonial regime. However, after the collapse of the USSR, these ties were largely lost, and now they need to be rebuilt.
"After 2019, when there was a significant shift in foreign policy, contacts intensified. Summits were held, and a large number of meetings took place in Russia as part of the Russia-Africa Forum, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and other venues," Berg recalled.
According to her, medium-sized businesses from various regions of Russia are already expanding their presence on the continent.
The expert believes that the most promising direction is the supply of basic and essential goods—fertilizers, grain, and everyday products. However, there is also a converse complication: after sending cargo to Guinea-Bissau, something needs to be imported in return, otherwise, the cost of logistics will make cooperation unprofitable.
"The main exports from these regions are coffee, cocoa beans, or, in the case of Guinea-Bissau, cashew nuts. We can't say that there is an overwhelming demand for cashews in the Russian market that isn't met by supply from Brazil or a number of other countries. Nevertheless, cooperation in energy, fisheries, and mining could be promising," Berg stated.
The expert's realistic forecast is cautious: Guinea-Bissau is a country whose turn in terms of developing economic relations will not come in a year or two. Rather, it will align itself with neighboring states—for example, Equatorial Guinea, with which Russia already has well-established relations.
"Guinea-Bissau, as a logistics hub, will become a satellite within a larger trade flow rather than an autonomous actor," the political scientist concluded.
At the same time, Guinea-Bissau often takes a neutral and reserved stance on key issues for Russia at the UN, and strategically, it can be viewed as a potential partner.