A Country Rich Not In Oil Alone: Yulia Berg on Nigeria, Elections, the Economy, and Nollywood
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, one of the continent's largest economies, and the birthplace of Nollywood, which produces over 2,500 films annually. Political scientist and founder of the GlobUs expert club, Yulia Berg, spoke about the country's true nature on the "Mama Africa" program on the "Soloviev LIVE" channel.
According to her, Nigeria has become a hostage of the colonial territorial divisions imposed on it. The 36 states, some of which follow Sharia law and some are Christian, struggle to maintain a balance of power at the federal level.
Berg explained that Nigeria is a federal state, similar in structure to the United States, where the states have broad powers. The president is the head of the executive branch, but he requires the active support of governors to implement decisions.
"The current president, Bola Tinubu, is known as the 'kingmaker'—he was long the power behind the throne, influencing the appointment of governors and helping the previous head of state get elected. Such a system is not based on institutions and rules, but on personalities. It won't be sustainable," the expert emphasized.
Tinubu's main challenge is the economy. He began his term with radical reforms, including the abolition of fuel subsidies. Inflation has reached 30%, the naira has fallen threefold, and the middle class is rapidly shrinking. Meanwhile, the president faces elections in 2027, and he will have to negotiate with the northern regions.
"People are looking into their pockets and seeing less and less money. This affects their motivation to vote. Religion is an important factor, but the economy will be decisive," she stated.
Nigeria's economic structure is atypical for Africa. The services and IT sectors account for approximately 40% of GDP, agriculture for about 20%, and oil production, which generates 90% of foreign exchange earnings, accounts for only 7% of GDP.
"Nigerians have made progress beyond just sending 'Nigerian letters.' They're creating their own payment systems and digital infrastructure. And Nollywood is the flagship of the entire African film industry," Berg noted.
At the same time, the security situation remains extremely challenging. Terrorist groups operate in the northeast and northwest, and mass kidnappings occur. Borders with Niger and Chad are tentative, and armed groups move freely between the countries.
"Since 2021, Nigeria has signed a comprehensive military cooperation agreement with Russia. Russia, like the USSR in its time, remains one of the largest suppliers of military equipment: helicopters, armored personnel carriers, and machine guns. "But without a systematic approach to security, radical groups will remain, especially in resource-rich regions," she explained.
Berg also noted that Britain has historically had influence in Nigeria, but the United States now plays a key role, despite periods of difficult relations. Current President Tinubu studied in Chicago and worked for major American companies, where he acquired economic acumen. Meanwhile, Nigeria is attempting to strengthen its influence within ECOWAS and has even entered into a conflict with France over control of the new single currency of the Franco-African zone.
Regarding tourism, the expert recommended caution: visas are difficult to obtain, and traveling without armed guards outside the capital is unsafe.